HP 3000 Manuals

HP RXForecast Users Manual for MPE Systems

Confidence Level Option 

The Confidence Level option appears on the RXForecast Options command
dialog box.


            

The Confidence Level option lets you select a statistical confidence
level.  A larger confidence level will yield a wider interval on the
graph.

The Confidence Level option works in conjunction with the Interval Type
option.  For example, if you choose 70 percent for the Confidence Level
and Confidence Interval for the Interval Type, then the interval bounds
have the following interpretation:  you can expect 70 percent of the true
trend line points to be within the confidence limits.  If you choose
Prediction Interval for Interval Type, then you can expect 70 percent of
the observed values to fall within the interval bounds.

If you select an Interval Type of None, you will see no interval bounds
on the forecast.  Thus, what Confidence Level you have selected is
irrelevant.

The following examples show, in turn, confidence levels of 70, 80, and 90
percent.  In each case, the Prediction Interval Type was chosen.


            


            


            

MPE/iX 5.0 Documentation